Like Chesterton’s realistic Irishman I prefer to prophesy after the event. Unfortunately this column will go to press after the results of the election are known, so I am forced into the uncomfortable position of making a prediction under circumstances that leave no wiggle room.
So OK, here goes. On Wednesday a great many people are going to be unhappy, and a great many people aren’t.
“Well duh!” I hear you say. “So what’s new about that?”
Nothing. But there are some things about this election that are kind of interesting.
One is the reports from Illinois and Maryland that people trying to vote Republican noticed their votes flipping to Democrat on the machines.
It was evidently a “calibration error.”
If it were anyplace else than Cook County, Illinois…
If it were anyplace else than Democrat-controlled Maryland…
The other thing is the North Carolina State Board of Elections has opened an investigation into allegations that Democratic campaign workers were assisting non-citizens to vote.
The investigation was opened after conservative gadfly James O’Keefe’s Project Veritas got a campaign worker on video appearing to counsel a “Brazilian immigrant” on how to vote. Doubtless taken out of context.
The fact that elections are not always honest is not news.
I remember some years back in Oklahoma a libertarian candidate ran against a notoriously corrupt sheriff. Due to claimed irregularities the ballot boxes were seized and taken into custody by… three guesses. First two don’t count.
Lyndon Johnson stole his first election to the senate, according to biographer Robert Caro.
And how do we know that? Because Johnson boasted about it! He even kept a photographic record of it so he could brag to his friends about it.
I have a friend who likes to brag he helped elect John F. Kennedy.
Well sort of. He was living in Chicago at the time and was called by a friend who asked his help moving some heavy objects. Which turned out to be ballots for Nixon, and they were moved into the river.
That sorry excuse for a statesman Nixon probably did the one noble thing in his life by not demanding a recount or investigation. But one wonders whether the feeling of having been cheated out of the presidency once led to the messy business of Watergate and his subsequent resignation.
By and large we tend to have faith that the system if not foolproof, works well enough most of the time.
But that faith seems to be eroding, and that worries me.
Republicans are pushing for voter ID, standard in many countries including Mexico.
Democrats claim voter ID is a ploy to keep minorities from voting, important to them because the Democratic Party is largely a coalition of minorities.
Republicans see their objections as a blatant attempt to open the door to election rigging.
And of course among many Democrats it is an article of faith that George W. Bush stole the election in the infamous Florida recount.
And now in an election where Republicans see the tantalizing possibility of retaking the senate, fears of stolen elections are running high.
So what happens if one or both sides becomes convinced that the system is broken and electoral fraud is widespread?
Whether you personally think this is true or not, maybe it doesn’t matter if enough people believe it.
Banana republic, here we come.