On September 26 the first of multiple leaks were discovered in the Nord Stream pipelines which run under the Baltic Sea from Russia to Germany. The leaks have been declared sabotage and much depends on finding out who might have done this – or perhaps we’d be better off not knowing.
The twin pipelines deliver natural gas to Germany, which has cold winters.
First of all, it’s not likely to be Russia. They control the gas at the source so why would they when they can shut it down whenever they want to without creating expensive damage. Gazprom, the state enterprise that controls the two pipelines, has already halted and reduced delivery of natural gas citing maintenance issues and blaming them on economic sanctions against Russia.
Central and Eastern European countries have a motive since the Baltic pipelines have reduced transit fee revenues from existing overland pipelines through their territory, and they fear increased Russian influence in Western Europe.
Not to mention Poland has a Navy on their Baltic coast and any opportunity to hurt Russian interests would be very tempting for them. Inconveniencing Germany probably wouldn’t bother them either.
The fact this happened just as the Baltic Pipe which delivers North Sea gas through Denmark to Poland was opened is kind of suspicious as well.
And it’s not necessarily a government. The ability to place explosive charges on the bottom of a sea with an average depth of only 180 feet and a maximum of 1,500 feet is within the capability of many commercial diving companies.
Nor is it unprecedented. In November, 2015 Nord Stream found a disabled underwater drone with explosives on the pipeline near the Swedish island Oland and requested the Swedish Navy remove it.
Nor can we dismiss the possibility that it’s just a Russian maintenance screwup, though reports of explosions equivalent to 200 to 300 pounds of TNT would seem to rule this out. Nonetheless recent revelations of how vast amounts of Russian military hardware were found in decayed or inoperable condition when called into service for the invasion of Ukraine mean we shouldn’t dismiss this out of hand.
All of this would seem to argue against Russia as the culprit. Unless…
On February 22 of this year President Biden said at a press conference in reference to the Russian military buildup on their border that if Russian invades Ukraine again, “there will no longer be a Nord Stream pipeline.”
When asked how this would be done Biden said, “I promise you we will be able to do it.”
Yes, it’s available on YouTube. Just search “Biden Nord Stream.”
It’s difficult to defend this as a rational thing to say. What Biden basically threatened was that if Russia invaded a country that is not a NATO member, then we’d take actions seriously detrimental to Germany, which is.
It doesn’t matter where your sympathies lie, and mine are definitely not with Russia, this was a seriously crazy thing to threaten.
So is this Putin’s gambit? To carry out a threat that Biden made so this can plausibly be blamed on the US?
It might be worth it for the damage it does to the NATO alliance as Germans shiver in the cold this winter.
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